The world steps into the year 2015. People are hoping for
the best, but preparing for the worst. It’s difficult to be an optimist, when
the year starts under the salvos of an endless civil war in Ukraine, under
threats from Kiev to solve the problem of the Donbass region and Crimea by
military action before the year ends, under open announcements from the USA
promising to destroy Russia, beginning with regime change using
the same techniques they used in Maidan Square. And all this is accompanied by
a war of sanctions against Russia and Crimea, along with attacks on the Ruble.
Russia has withstood it all. More than that, Russia has unified itself internally, and been able to consolidate the larger part of
governments throughout the world to oppose the American doctrine
of a unipolar world. For the first time since the beginning of the 20th
century, the resources controlled by the USA are less than the resources of
their opponents (who were forced to oppose the USA when the Americans named them as enemies.)
For the first time in its history, the USA is in a situation
analogous to Germany at the start of both World Wars. Prolonged wars were fatal
for both the Second and Third Reichs. The inadequacy of Germany’s resources led
to a situation where after two or three years after the beginning of military
action, Germany began to lag her foes in all aspects: from the amount of armed
battalions to the amount of all kinds of equipment, and this gap only grew as
time passed. However many victories the German generals won, there were always
new troops to oppose them, troops with more people and better arms than the
last. All the while, German resources (including human resources), sooner or
later were running out, and the last catastrophic blow became a matter of time,
not principle.
Accordingly, Germany began both World Wars with the military
doctrine of a blitzkrieg – a lightning fast war, leading to victory in the
space of one or two months (in some situations a few weeks or even days). The
blitzkrieg was necessary in order to ensure the enemy had no time to put its
overwhelming resources into play. In both situations, the only thing the West found that could withstand the German blitzkrieg was the Russian army.
In the first world war, Russia threw herself into fulfilling
her promises. In the second World War, Hitler chose a poorly conceived
approach, having decided that the destruction of the USSR would happen faster
and would cost him less than liquidating Great Britain. He was mistaken. But
for this mistake the USSR paid by entering the war a year earlier than it had
planned (the Soviet leadership had concluded that Hitler wouldn’t open the
Eastern front before he had smashed England, and so was waiting for an attack
during spring or summer 1942), and also by tens of millions of human lives (3/5
of which were civilian.)
Now, for the first time in the history of world wars, Russia
and the Anglo-Saxons have switched roles. Russia waits peacefully, because with
every day, every week, every month, and every year of waiting, Russia’s
resource superiority (including allies), becomes more and more overwhelming,
and the position of the USA becomes more and more hopeless.
The USA is in a hurry. They need a blitzkrieg. Not too long
from now, the resource gap will become so large that the standoff with Russia
and the camp she commands, of opponents of a unipolar world, will become such
that the battle of Washington against Moscow will look just as silly and absurd
as a battle of Lesotho or Nepal against Washington would look today.
For this reason, 2014 was such a difficult year. The USA
mobilized all resources it commands, armed all its possible allies, and threw them all at Russia. Meanwhile, the Russian economy just started to rebuild itself. In a better time, in a normal (peaceful) environment, Russia would
need another 10 or 15 quiet years, in order to smoothly wean itself from the
dollar, leave the one-sided dependence on the West, create and deploy
international structures. However, just like in 1941, we’ve had to do all this
on the fly.
2015 will not be easy.
The USA has not given up. They have not yet won, but have not yet lost.
They will struggle with all their might, exploiting every opportunity, because
this is a war unto destruction. But 2015 should become a fundamental
turning point. It’s not like 1942, when the change sputtered out, but like 1943, when
after the Battle of Kursk all doubts about the final result of the war were
were dispelled from all minds.
The end of 2014 was marked by a fight between Moscow and
Washington for the initiative. It’s obvious, that the beginning of 2015 will
also be marked by this battle. However, by summer or fall of 2015, if nothing
unexpected happens, Russia will seize the global initiative.
Russia has two weaknesses: allies from the Eurasian Economic
Union (Belorussia, Kazakhstan, Russia, Armenia), and internal opposition.
Today, Russia’s internal opposition is marginalized, not
creative, not large, doesn’t have the support of society, and so it seems
non-threatening. This is a mistaken view. These people (the majority of whom,
with rare exception, are well intentioned) hate Russia and hate her president,
because he succeeded in returning power and authority to Russia. These people
fight not for a victory, but for the destruction of the country and the
government. Accordingly, they are ready to adopt many more tactics than the ordinary civilized politician would.
They are ready to support their political opponents, even
enemies (like radical Russian Orthodox, radical monarchists, radical
Communists, and other radical leftists, all the way to Trotskyites and
Maoists). They are ready to support even open bandits (as it was in Ukraine),
as long as the bandits contribute to the destruction of Russia. And the more
they do this, the more they become for the USA the last hope for salvation, the
American “Wunderwaffe” (wonder weapon), which should change the course of the
war at the last moment. In other words, they will not lack for any financial,
informational, diplomatic, or any other possible type of support.
They will try to turn public opinion against the
authorities, if only for a brief moment, and exploit this moment to organize
street protests, chaos in the capitol and overthrow the government as the
country fragments. For them, as for the USA, this is the only chance to survive
(in the political sense, of course).
Allies in the Eurasian Economic Union (except Nursultan
Nazarbayev, the president of Kazakhstan, where the elite is far from unified in
their choice, so we’ll exclude the oldest and most experienced politician of
the post-Soviet landscape), I believe, don’t fully understand the geopolitical
situation that is coming to pass. For them, it’s just the latest sharpening of
relations between the Russian Federation and the USA, during which it would be
a good idea to take as much as possible from both superpowers, without making
any sacrifices.
From this misunderstanding comes offense at the idea that in
the Customs Union (The Eurasian Economic Union, plus Kyrgyzstan), countries
don’t only receive benefits, but must also give some things up. From this comes
the indignation at temporary difficulties. From this come the demands to
Russia, which continues to carry the entire weight of the geopolitical
interests of the Eurasian Economic Union alone, demands for new credits,
concessions, and discounts. From this comes the inability to understand the
suddenly harsh positions Moscow takes in relation to its partners.
In the camp of the Eurasian Economic Union, notwithstanding
all these misunderstandings, dissension and unsteadiness have not yet started.
If God wills, they won’t start. But this unity is not from the understanding of
the difficulties of the moment and the necessity to withstand them together, as
withstood our forbearers 70 years ago, but only from the realization of the
fact that Russia, through large effort, is capable of withstanding and
conquering, even without the post-Soviet countries. But the post-Soviet
countries themselves without Russia will fall in the course of one or two years
(the USA will make sure this happens), and their leaders will face the fate not
of Milosevic, but of Hussein.
It’s clear that the activity of internal Russian opposition
and opposing forces within the Eurasian Economic Union will depend on how the
situation in Ukraine develops. The government in Kiev and its American allies
are getting ready for a new assault on New Russia. They traditionally are
planning on two variants:
1.
Russia will not interfere, in which case they
will successfully destroy New Russia, or the war will take on a prolonged
character, during which the resources the resistance has will be significantly
less than those commanded by the Kiev government, and so the final defeat of
the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics will be unavoidable, after long bloody
battles and heroic opposition.
2.
Russia will interfere, and then, finally, it
will be possible to accuse her of aggression against “southern democracy” with
all the sanctions that follow, even though such sanctions won’t harm Russia as
much as they will throw Europe and the USA into the same camp forever (at least
for the foreseeable future, of course).
Judging by the peaceful and even somewhat ironic manner with
which the Kremlin waits, it's possible that they have thought up a third variant
of asymmetric response (unexpectedly for Washington). For example, perhaps the
European Community has already agreed to a course that would surprise the USA
(although this seems unlikely).
In any case, the hot phase of conflict in Ukraine has
already stretched out too long, and should be completed quickly. And as soon as
this phase completes (by externally visible results, notwithstanding the
perspective strategic successes), both the post-Soviet allies, and the internal
Russian opposition, and even the radical patriots will make their judgments
about the endurance of the Russian government, and on Russia’s chances to win
the conflict with the USA.
Fundamentally, victory on the Russian front is guaranteed,
and 2015 will hasten it. We need to fix the situation just a little at home,
possibly giving up a little elegance and even partially effective external
political operations in order to ensure its reliability and guaranteed victory.
Similarly Stalin, in order to reduce risk, in December 1942
replaced the strategically effective and theoretically faultless and
elegant “Operation Big Saturn” with “Operation Little Saturn”,
and in Summer of 1943 rejected the proposal from Vatunin to carry out a
preemptive strike against the Germans at Kursk.
Any operation carries with it a share of risk (sometimes
significant). Without risk there is no victory, and the one who risks nothing
never drinks champagne. But risk and recklessness are different things. It only
makes sense to be reckless when the opponent is so powerful, that all other
scenarios lead to failure. If, however, the enemy is weaker, and the question
of victory is only a question of time, but not principle, one affords the
opportunity for recklessness to the enemy.
However, the achievement of a fundamental turning point in
2015 does not mean that the final victory awaits us during this year. Judging
by the state of the ship-building program of the Russian Navy, the fleet won’t
be able to keep a strong, constant strike force in 2 or 3 key places along
world ocean shipping routes until 2020-2021. Accordingly, the final defeat for
the USA won’t happen before 2017 or 2018.
The world’s oceans aren’t just a courtyard to walk through.
Shipping routes must be controlled and maintained. It’s fortunate, then, that
between 2018 and 2020, Russia, India and China will be able to take on the
consolidated responsibility to safeguard world shipping.
But this is the work of the wonderful future. Meanwhile,
2015 waits for us. A difficult year, but a successful one.
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